US: Q1 real GDP to come in at 2.3% – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the BEA’s final estimate of Q1 real GDP for US economy to come in at 2.3% q-o-q saar, 0.1pp higher than the BEA’s second estimate.

Key Quotes

“Incoming data will likely confirm relatively soft growth in personal consumption spending. While incoming information on the monthly profile of personal spending suggests higher growth in March, the spending on services was likely weaker than the BEA’s estimates, as suggested by the Census Bureau’s Q1 Quarterly Services Survey.”

“Incoming data on business spending on structures were positive. Backward revisions to private nonresidential construction spending suggest better momentum in structures investment than the BEA’s estimates. Further, annual revisions to trade data imply stronger growth in exports and moderation in imports. On net, it seems likely that the drag from net exports was less than the BEA’s expectations.”